Viktoria Plzen vs Pardubice — Czech First League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Viktoria Plzen
vs
17:00
Pardubice
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Viktoria Plzen
61%
Draw
21%
Pardubice
17%
Expected goals
1.82–0.95
Viktoria Plzen · Pardubice
Viktoria Plzen win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.5%), 2–1 (12.0%), 2–0 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Viktoria Plzen score at least twice in 56%; Pardubice in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Pardubice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Viktoria Plzen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market reference | 61% | 21% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 21% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.61–1.09 → 1.82–0.95
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Recent form
No recent results.
Pardubice
| 19 Sept | H | vs Bohemians 1905 | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.