Viktoria Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav — Czech First League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Viktoria Plzen
vs
13:00
Mlada Boleslav
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Viktoria Plzen
64%
Draw
19%
Mlada Boleslav
17%
Expected goals
1.87–0.98
Viktoria Plzen · Mlada Boleslav
Viktoria Plzen win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (13.0%), 2–0 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Viktoria Plzen score at least twice in 58%; Mlada Boleslav in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Mlada Boleslav goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Viktoria Plzen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 19% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Mlada Boleslav
| 19 Sept | H | vs Zbrojovka Brno | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.