Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech First League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Teplice
vs
13:00
Sigma Olomouc
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Teplice
36%
Draw
27%
Sigma Olomouc
37%
Expected goals
1.25–1.27
Teplice · Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Teplice score at least twice in 36%; Sigma Olomouc in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Sigma Olomouc goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Teplice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market reference | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Teplice
| 20 Sept | A | vs Hradec Králové | 2–0 | W |
Sigma Olomouc
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sparta Praha | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.