Sparta Prague vs Pardubice — Czech First League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Sparta Prague
vs
16:00
Pardubice
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sparta Prague
73%
Draw
16%
Pardubice
11%
Expected goals
1.97–0.83
Sparta Prague · Pardubice
Sparta Prague win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15.7%), 2–1 (15.2%), 2–0 (13.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 44% of outcomes; the other 56% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sparta Prague score at least twice in 62%; Pardubice in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Pardubice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 13.0 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sparta Prague goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market reference | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 73% | 16% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
No recent results.
Pardubice
| 19 Sept | H | vs Bohemians 1905 | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.