Plzen vs Sparta Praha — Czech First League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Plzen
vs
17:00
Sparta Praha
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Plzen
38%
Draw
25%
Sparta Praha
36%
Expected goals
1.45–1.39
Plzen · Sparta Praha
Plzen win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Plzen score at least twice in 43%; Sparta Praha in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Sparta Praha goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Plzen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 25% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Plzen
| 20 Sept | A | vs Slavia Praha | 1–2 | L |
Sparta Praha
| 20 Sept | A | vs Sigma Olomouc | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.