Baník Ostrava vs Teplice — Czech First League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Baník Ostrava
vs
14:00
Teplice
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Baník Ostrava
45%
Draw
26%
Teplice
29%
Expected goals
1.48–1.23
Baník Ostrava · Teplice
Baník Ostrava win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Baník Ostrava win is 2–1 (10.7%).
Baník Ostrava score at least twice in 44%; Teplice in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Teplice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Baník Ostrava goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Baník Ostrava
| 19 Sept | A | vs Slovácko | 2–2 | D |
Teplice
| 20 Sept | A | vs Hradec Králové | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.