St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
St. Pauli
vs
12:30
1. FC Nürnberg
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St. Pauli
45%
Draw
26%
1. FC Nürnberg
29%
Expected goals
1.48–1.25
St. Pauli · 1. FC Nürnberg
St. Pauli win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (10.6%), 1–0 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St. Pauli win is 2–1 (10.6%).
St. Pauli score at least twice in 45%; 1. FC Nürnberg in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
1. FC Nürnberg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: St. Pauli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St. Pauli | 2.14 |
| Draw | 3.69 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.22 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.