Nurnberg vs Hannover — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
1. FC Nürnberg
37%
result
Draw
25%
Hannover
38%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a 1. FC Nürnberg win 37.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hannover win. Expected goals 1.59–1.58 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.0%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Nurnberg
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Greuther Furth | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bielefeld | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Hannover | 2–1 | W |
Hannover
| 9 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wolfsburg | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Karlsruhe | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nurnberg (Home · 5 matches) | Hannover (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Nurnberg's home record; away stats use Hannover's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.