Nurnberg vs Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nurnberg
43%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Bielefeld
32%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Nurnberg win 42.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nurnberg win. Expected goals 1.67–1.30 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (7.8%). It finished 4–1.
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Nurnberg
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Greuther Furth | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bielefeld | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Hannover | 2–1 | W |
Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nurnberg (Home · 3 matches) | Bielefeld (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Nurnberg's home record; away stats use Bielefeld's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.