🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg | 2.36 | 2.36 |
| Draw | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| Bielefeld | 2.89 | 2.89 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketNurnberg
41%
Draw
25%
Bielefeld
33%
Nurnberg 1.64 xGexpected goals1.34 xG Bielefeld
Nurnberg win 41% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.8%).
Nurnberg score at least twice in 48%; Bielefeld in 39%.
1–1 11.8%1–2 9.0%2–1 7.5%0–1 7.1%2–0 6.6%1–0 6.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Nurnberg goals · columns = Bielefeld goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals18%
Nurnberg clean sheet26%
Bielefeld clean sheet20%
Nurnberg score 2+48%
Bielefeld score 2+39%
Nurnberg score 3+23%
Model vs market
| Source | Nurnberg | Draw | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 41% | 25% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 25% | 33% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Nurnberg
| 2 Aug | A | vs Elversberg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Darmstadt | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Preußen Münster | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Paderborn | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
Bielefeld
| 2 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Aug | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Magdeburg | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 18 Apr 26 | BielefeldvsNurnberg | 1 – 1 |
| 23 Nov 25 | NurnbergvsBielefeld | 2 – 0 |
Nurnberg: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Nurnberg (Home) | Bielefeld (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.59 | 2.88 |
Home stats use Nurnberg's home record; away stats use Bielefeld's away record this season.