Magdeburg vs St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Magdeburg
41%
Draw
26%
St. Pauli
33%
Expected goals
1.70–1.36
Magdeburg · St. Pauli
Magdeburg win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 1–2 (9.1%), 2–1 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Magdeburg score at least twice in 49%; St. Pauli in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Pauli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Magdeburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market reference | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Magdeburg | 2.34 |
| Draw | 3.67 |
| St. Pauli | 2.89 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Magdeburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Braunschweig | 1–6 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hertha | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 3–0 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Magdeburg (Home · 5 matches) | St. Pauli (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | — |
Home stats use Magdeburg's home record; away stats use St. Pauli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.