Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Magdeburg
53%
Draw
22%
Karlsruhe
24%
Expected goals
1.90–1.21
Magdeburg · Karlsruhe
Magdeburg win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–1 (9.7%), 2–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Magdeburg win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Magdeburg score at least twice in 57%; Karlsruhe in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Karlsruhe goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Magdeburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Market reference | 53% | 22% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 22% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Magdeburg | 1.81 |
| Draw | 4.16 |
| Karlsruhe | 3.86 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Magdeburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Braunschweig | 1–6 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hertha | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 3–0 | W |
Karlsruhe
| 8 Aug | H | vs Bielefeld | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Wolfsburg | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Hannover | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Cottbus | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Magdeburg (Home · 4 matches) | Karlsruhe (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Magdeburg's home record; away stats use Karlsruhe's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.