Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Magdeburg
46%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Holstein Kiel
29%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Magdeburg win 45.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Magdeburg win. Expected goals 1.71–1.38 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (7.5%). It finished 2–0.
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Magdeburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Braunschweig | 1–6 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hertha | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 3–0 | W |
Holstein Kiel
| 8 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Magdeburg | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Magdeburg (Home · 3 matches) | Holstein Kiel (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Magdeburg's home record; away stats use Holstein Kiel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.