🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·11:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg | 2.23 | 2.23 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| Holstein Kiel | 3.04 | 3.04 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketMagdeburg
43%
Draw
25%
Holstein Kiel
32%
Magdeburg 1.70 xGexpected goals1.40 xG Holstein Kiel
Magdeburg win 43% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.4%).
Magdeburg score at least twice in 50%; Holstein Kiel in 41%.
1–1 11.4%2–1 8.9%1–2 7.8%1–0 6.7%2–0 6.5%2–2 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Magdeburg goals · columns = Holstein Kiel goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score62%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Over 4.5 goals20%
Magdeburg clean sheet25%
Holstein Kiel clean sheet19%
Magdeburg score 2+50%
Holstein Kiel score 2+41%
Magdeburg score 3+24%
Model vs market
| Source | Magdeburg | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 25% | 32% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Magdeburg
| 3 Aug | H | vs Braunschweig | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Dresden | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Hannover | 1–3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Greuther Furth | 4–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bielefeld | 0–2 | L |
Holstein Kiel
| 2 Aug | A | vs Paderborn | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | vs Bielefeld | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Greuther Furth | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hannover | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 9 May 26 | Holstein KielvsMagdeburg | 1 – 3 |
| 13 Dec 25 | MagdeburgvsHolstein Kiel | 3 – 3 |
Magdeburg: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Magdeburg (Home) | Holstein Kiel (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.2% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 58.8% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Magdeburg's home record; away stats use Holstein Kiel's away record this season.