Holstein Kiel vs Dresden — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Holstein Kiel
41%
Draw
25%
Dresden
34%
Expected goals
1.54–1.32
Holstein Kiel · Dresden
Holstein Kiel win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Holstein Kiel score at least twice in 45%; Dresden in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Dresden goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Holstein Kiel goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2.34 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| Dresden | 2.78 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Holstein Kiel
| 8 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Magdeburg | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
Dresden
| 9 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bochum | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Braunschweig | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Holstein Kiel (Home · 4 matches) | Dresden (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.25 |
Home stats use Holstein Kiel's home record; away stats use Dresden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.