Holstein Kiel vs Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Holstein Kiel
39%
Draw
27%
Bielefeld
34%
Expected goals
1.52–1.33
Holstein Kiel · Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Holstein Kiel score at least twice in 44%; Bielefeld in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Bielefeld goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Holstein Kiel goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market reference | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2.48 |
| Draw | 3.51 |
| Bielefeld | 2.81 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Holstein Kiel
| 8 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Magdeburg | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Holstein Kiel (Home · 5 matches) | Bielefeld (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Holstein Kiel's home record; away stats use Bielefeld's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.