Hertha vs Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hertha
51%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Magdeburg
26%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hertha win 50.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hertha win. Expected goals 1.88–1.34 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–1 (10.2%), 2–0 (7.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Hertha
| 7 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Heidenheim | 4–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Magdeburg | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–1 | W |
Magdeburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Braunschweig | 1–6 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hertha | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hertha (Home · 4 matches) | Magdeburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Hertha's home record; away stats use Magdeburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.