Hertha vs Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hertha
53%
Draw
24%
Bielefeld
23%
Expected goals
1.96–1.20
Hertha · Bielefeld
Hertha win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.1%), 2–0 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hertha win is 2–1 (9.1%).
Hertha score at least twice in 58%; Bielefeld in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Bielefeld goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hertha goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Market reference | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 24% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hertha | 1.82 |
| Draw | 3.94 |
| Bielefeld | 4.03 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hertha
| 7 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Heidenheim | 4–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Magdeburg | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–1 | W |
Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hertha (Home · 3 matches) | Bielefeld (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Hertha's home record; away stats use Bielefeld's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.