Hannover vs Karlsruhe — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hannover
63%
top pick
Draw
21%
result
Karlsruhe
16%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 20.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hannover win. Expected goals 2.16–1.03 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.2%), 2–0 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.7%). It finished 2–2.
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Hannover
| 9 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wolfsburg | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Karlsruhe | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–2 | L |
Karlsruhe
| 8 Aug | H | vs Bielefeld | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Wolfsburg | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Hannover | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Cottbus | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hannover (Home · 5 matches) | Karlsruhe (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Hannover's home record; away stats use Karlsruhe's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.