Hannover vs Dresden — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hannover
46%
Draw
24%
Dresden
30%
Expected goals
1.76–1.29
Hannover · Dresden
Hannover win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hannover win is 2–1 (8.4%).
Hannover score at least twice in 52%; Dresden in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Dresden goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hannover goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market reference | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hannover | 2.08 |
| Draw | 3.90 |
| Dresden | 3.21 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hannover
| 9 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wolfsburg | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Karlsruhe | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–2 | L |
Dresden
| 9 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bochum | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Braunschweig | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hannover (Home · 4 matches) | Dresden (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.25 |
Home stats use Hannover's home record; away stats use Dresden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.