Greuther Furth vs Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 13.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Greuther Furth
39%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Magdeburg
36%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Greuther Furth win. Expected goals 1.60–1.53 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (8.2%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Greuther Furth
| 9 Aug | A | vs St Pauli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 4–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bochum | 1–1 | D |
Magdeburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Braunschweig | 1–6 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hertha | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Greuther Furth (Home · 5 matches) | Magdeburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Greuther Furth's home record; away stats use Magdeburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.