Dresden vs Hertha — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dresden
35%
Draw
23%
Hertha
41%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hertha win 41.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hertha win. Expected goals 1.48–1.63 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Dresden
| 9 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bochum | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Braunschweig | 2–2 | D |
Hertha
| 7 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Heidenheim | 4–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Magdeburg | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dresden (Home · 4 matches) | Hertha (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Dresden's home record; away stats use Hertha's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.