🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·11:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Draw | 4.02 | 4.02 |
| Hannover | 2.08 | 2.08 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketDarmstadt
30%
Draw
24%
Hannover
47%
Darmstadt 1.39 xGexpected goals1.64 xG Hannover
Hannover win 47% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (11.2%).
Darmstadt score at least twice in 39%; Hannover in 50%.
1–2 11.2%1–1 11.0%0–1 8.7%0–2 6.9%2–1 6.3%2–2 5.7%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Darmstadt goals · columns = Hannover goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score61%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals19%
Darmstadt clean sheet19%
Hannover clean sheet26%
Darmstadt score 2+39%
Hannover score 2+50%
Darmstadt score 3+17%
Model vs market
| Source | Darmstadt | Draw | Hannover |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 30% | 24% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 24% | 47% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Darmstadt
| 2 Aug | H | vs Bochum | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Hertha | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Kaiserslautern | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Braunschweig | 2–1 | W |
Hannover
| 3 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Magdeburg | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hertha | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 11 Apr 26 | DarmstadtvsHannover | 0 – 2 |
| 8 Nov 25 | HannovervsDarmstadt | 2 – 3 |
Darmstadt: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Darmstadt (Home) | Hannover (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 29.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 3.18 |
Home stats use Darmstadt's home record; away stats use Hannover's away record this season.