Darmstadt vs Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Darmstadt
35%
result
Draw
25%
Bielefeld
39%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Darmstadt win 35.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bielefeld win. Expected goals 1.57–1.57 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 1–2 (9.5%), 2–1 (7.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Darmstadt
| 8 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Dresden | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hannover | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Bielefeld | 2–1 | W |
Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Darmstadt (Home · 6 matches) | Bielefeld (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Darmstadt's home record; away stats use Bielefeld's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.