Bochum vs Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bochum
50%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Greuther Furth
25%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bochum win. Expected goals 1.87–1.25 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (7.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Bochum
| 7 Aug | H | vs Hertha | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Osnabruck | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Dresden | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Greuther Furth | 1–1 | D |
Greuther Furth
| 9 Aug | A | vs St Pauli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 4–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bochum | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bochum (Home · 5 matches) | Greuther Furth (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.40 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Bochum's home record; away stats use Greuther Furth's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.