Bielefeld vs Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bielefeld
55%
Draw
23%
Braunschweig
22%
Expected goals
1.92–1.16
Bielefeld · Braunschweig
Bielefeld win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bielefeld win is 2–1 (10.1%).
Bielefeld score at least twice in 57%; Braunschweig in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Braunschweig goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bielefeld goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market reference | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Bielefeld | 1.76 |
| Draw | 4.05 |
| Braunschweig | 4.25 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
Braunschweig
| 8 Aug | A | vs Magdeburg | 6–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Bochum | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Hertha | 3–5 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Osnabruck | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Dresden | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bielefeld (Home · 4 matches) | Braunschweig (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Bielefeld's home record; away stats use Braunschweig's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.