1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
vs
18:30
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
1. FC Nürnberg
48%
Draw
24%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
28%
Expected goals
1.84–1.35
1. FC Nürnberg · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely 1. FC Nürnberg win is 2–1 (9.1%).
1. FC Nürnberg score at least twice in 55%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
1. FC Kaiserslautern goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: 1. FC Nürnberg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Market reference | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 2.02 |
| Draw | 3.90 |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 3.36 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.