Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Werder Bremen
23%
result
Draw
22%
RasenBallsport Leipzig
55%
top pick
Final score
3–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Werder Bremen win 22.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a RasenBallsport Leipzig win. Expected goals 1.22–1.90 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.2%), 1–1 (10.1%), 0–1 (8.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Werder Bremen
| 30 Aug | A | vs Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| 29 Aug | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 6–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Werder Bremen (Home · 4 matches) | RasenBallsport Leipzig (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Werder Bremen's home record; away stats use RasenBallsport Leipzig's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.