Werder Bremen vs Augsburg — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Werder Bremen
41%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Augsburg
35%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Werder Bremen win 40.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Werder Bremen win. Expected goals 1.63–1.48 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.2%). It finished 3–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Werder Bremen
| 30 Aug | A | vs Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
Augsburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Schalke 04 | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayern Munich | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Werder Bremen (Home · 4 matches) | Augsburg (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 5.67 |
Home stats use Werder Bremen's home record; away stats use Augsburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.