Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Union Berlin
41%
top pick
Draw
27%
Schalke 04
32%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Schalke 04 win 32.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Union Berlin win. Expected goals 1.62–1.45 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–2 (7.3%). It finished 1–3.
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Union Berlin
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Schalke 04 | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–7 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Elversberg | 1–0 | W |
Schalke 04
| 30 Aug | A | vs Augsburg | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | vs Freiburg | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Union Berlin (Home · 5 matches) | Schalke 04 (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Union Berlin's home record; away stats use Schalke 04's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.