Schalke 04 vs Elversberg — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Schalke 04
49%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Elversberg
26%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Schalke 04 win. Expected goals 1.73–1.26 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.6%), 1–0 (8.6%). It finished 0–0.
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Schalke 04
| 30 Aug | A | vs Augsburg | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | vs Freiburg | 1–2 | L |
Elversberg
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Union Berlin | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Schalke 04 (Home · 4 matches) | Elversberg (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 0.75 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Schalke 04's home record; away stats use Elversberg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.