Schalke 04 vs Elversberg — Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Schalke 04
47%
Draw
26%
Elversberg
26%
Expected goals
1.68–1.26
Schalke 04 · Elversberg
Schalke 04 win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Schalke 04 win is 2–1 (10.1%).
Schalke 04 score at least twice in 50%; Elversberg in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Elversberg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Schalke 04 goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 26% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 | 2.06 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 2.04 | 2.11 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.64 | 3.34 | 3.75 William Hill |
| Elversberg | 3.64 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 3.56 | 2.94 | 3.66 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Schalke 04
| 30 Aug | A | vs Augsburg | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
Elversberg
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Schalke 04 (Home · 2 matches) | Elversberg (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 0.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Schalke 04's home record; away stats use Elversberg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.