RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburg — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 29.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig
71%
pick · result
Draw
16%
Hamburg
12%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a RasenBallsport Leipzig win 71.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a RasenBallsport Leipzig win. Expected goals 2.72–1.02 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.4%), 3–0 (8.0%). It finished 5–0.
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RasenBallsport Leipzig
| 29 Aug | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 6–0 | W |
Hamburg
| 29 Aug | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs FC Cologne | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | RasenBallsport Leipzig (Home · 4 matches) | Hamburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 3.40 |
Home stats use RasenBallsport Leipzig's home record; away stats use Hamburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.