RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Elversberg — Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
RasenBallsport Leipzig
68%
Draw
18%
Elversberg
14%
Expected goals
2.56–1.03
RasenBallsport Leipzig · Elversberg
RasenBallsport Leipzig win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig score at least twice in 71%; Elversberg in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Elversberg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 73% | 17% | 11% |
| Market reference | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 18% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.43 |
| Draw | 5.21 |
| Elversberg | 6.67 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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RasenBallsport Leipzig
| 29 Aug | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 6–0 | W |
Elversberg
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Union Berlin | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | RasenBallsport Leipzig (Home · 3 matches) | Elversberg (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.67 | 2.67 |
Home stats use RasenBallsport Leipzig's home record; away stats use Elversberg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.