Paderborn vs Hoffenheim — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Paderborn
23%
result
Draw
22%
Hoffenheim
56%
top pick
Final score
3–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Paderborn win 22.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hoffenheim win. Expected goals 1.19–1.88 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.3%), 1–1 (10.0%), 0–1 (9.0%). It finished 3–1.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Paderborn
| 29 Aug | A | vs Mainz 05 | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–2 | L |
Hoffenheim
| 29 Aug | A | vs FC Cologne | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Hamburg | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paderborn (Home · 4 matches) | Hoffenheim (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Paderborn's home record; away stats use Hoffenheim's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.