Paderborn vs Hoffenheim — Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Paderborn
21%
Draw
21%
Hoffenheim
58%
Expected goals
1.15–1.90
Paderborn · Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.7%), 1–1 (9.9%), 0–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Paderborn score at least twice in 31%; Hoffenheim in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Hoffenheim goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Paderborn goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market reference | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Metis Forecast | 21% | 21% | 58% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 4.54 | 4.33 | 4.20 | 4.62 | 4.65 | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 3.87 | 4.65 Betano |
| Draw | 4.46 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.57 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.10 | 4.45 | 3.76 | 4.57 1xBet |
| Hoffenheim | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.62 | 1.68 | 1.66 | 1.72 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Paderborn
| 29 Aug | A | vs Mainz 05 | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
Hoffenheim
| 29 Aug | A | vs FC Cologne | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paderborn (Home · 2 matches) | Hoffenheim (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Paderborn's home record; away stats use Hoffenheim's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.