Paderborn vs Hamburg — Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Paderborn
42%
Draw
25%
Hamburg
33%
Expected goals
1.54–1.35
Paderborn · Hamburg
Paderborn win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Paderborn score at least twice in 46%; Hamburg in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Hamburg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Paderborn goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 25% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Paderborn | 2.34 |
| Draw | 3.77 |
| Hamburg | 2.93 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Paderborn
| 29 Aug | A | vs Mainz 05 | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–2 | L |
Hamburg
| 29 Aug | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs FC Cologne | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paderborn (Home · 3 matches) | Hamburg (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Paderborn's home record; away stats use Hamburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.