Paderborn vs Freiburg — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Paderborn
26%
Draw
26%
Freiburg
49%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Freiburg win 48.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Freiburg win. Expected goals 1.45–1.75 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (12.3%), 1–1 (11.5%), 0–1 (8.1%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Paderborn
| 29 Aug | A | vs Mainz 05 | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–2 | L |
Freiburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Werder Bremen | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | vs Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paderborn (Home · 4 matches) | Freiburg (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Paderborn's home record; away stats use Freiburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.