Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hoffenheim
35%
Draw
24%
Bayer Leverkusen
42%
Expected goals
1.57–1.75
Hoffenheim · Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 66% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hoffenheim score at least twice in 47%; Bayer Leverkusen in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
Bayer Leverkusen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Hoffenheim goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 24% | 42% |
| Market reference | 35% | 24% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 24% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 2.79 |
| Draw | 4.04 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hoffenheim
| 29 Aug | A | vs FC Cologne | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Hamburg | 2–3 | L |
Bayer Leverkusen
| 29 Aug | A | vs Elversberg | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Mainz 05 | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hoffenheim (Home · 3 matches) | Bayer Leverkusen (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.33 | 5.33 |
Home stats use Hoffenheim's home record; away stats use Bayer Leverkusen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.