Hamburg vs FC Cologne — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hamburg
35%
result
Draw
26%
FC Cologne
39%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Hamburg win 35.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Cologne win. Expected goals 1.47–1.59 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Hamburg
| 29 Aug | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs FC Cologne | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
FC Cologne
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Werder Bremen | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hamburg (Home · 3 matches) | FC Cologne (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Hamburg's home record; away stats use FC Cologne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.