Freiburg vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Freiburg
52%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Werder Bremen
22%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Freiburg win 52.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Freiburg win. Expected goals 1.93–1.21 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (7.9%). It finished 4–1.
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Freiburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Werder Bremen | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
Werder Bremen
| 30 Aug | A | vs Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Freiburg (Home · 2 matches) | Werder Bremen (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Freiburg's home record; away stats use Werder Bremen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.