🇩🇪 Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·13:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.73 |
| Werder Bremen | 4.04 | 4.04 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketFreiburg
51%
Draw
26%
Werder Bremen
24%
Freiburg 1.90 xGexpected goals1.23 xG Werder Bremen
Freiburg win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.8%).
Freiburg score at least twice in 56%; Werder Bremen in 35%.
1–1 11.8%2–1 9.1%2–0 7.6%1–0 7.0%2–2 6.4%1–2 6.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Freiburg goals · columns = Werder Bremen goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score61%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Over 4.5 goals21%
Freiburg clean sheet29%
Werder Bremen clean sheet15%
Freiburg score 2+56%
Werder Bremen score 2+35%
Freiburg score 3+30%
Model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 26% | 24% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Freiburg
| 23 Aug | H | vs Augsburg | 1–3 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Hoffenheim | 1–1 | D |
Werder Bremen
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–3 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
| 7 Feb 26 | FreiburgvsWerder Bremen | 1 – 0 |
| 20 Sept 25 | Werder BremenvsFreiburg | 0 – 3 |
Freiburg: 2W 0D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Freiburg (Home) | Werder Bremen (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 11.8% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.24 | 2.76 |
Home stats use Freiburg's home record; away stats use Werder Bremen's away record this season.