Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Freiburg
57%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Borussia M.Gladbach
20%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Freiburg win 57.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Freiburg win. Expected goals 2.07–1.17 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.4%). It finished 5–0.
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Freiburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Werder Bremen | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | vs Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
Borussia M.Gladbach
| 29 Aug | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 3–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Freiburg | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 3–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Freiburg (Home · 4 matches) | Borussia M.Gladbach (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Freiburg's home record; away stats use Borussia M.Gladbach's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.