Freiburg vs Bayern Munich — Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Freiburg
14%
Draw
15%
Bayern Munich
71%
Expected goals
1.07–2.52
Freiburg · Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich win 71% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.6%), 0–2 (9.3%), 1–3 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Freiburg score at least twice in 29%; Bayern Munich in 73%.
Scoreline distribution
Bayern Munich goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Freiburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Market reference | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| Metis Forecast | 14% | 15% | 71% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Freiburg | 6.84 |
| Draw | 6.10 |
| Bayern Munich | 1.37 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Freiburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Werder Bremen | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | vs Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
Bayern Munich
| 28 Aug | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Elversberg | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 7–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Freiburg (Home · 3 matches) | Bayern Munich (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.33 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Freiburg's home record; away stats use Bayern Munich's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.