FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
FC Cologne
46%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Werder Bremen
28%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Cologne win. Expected goals 1.77–1.35 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–2 (7.0%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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FC Cologne
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Werder Bremen | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 2–1 | W |
Werder Bremen
| 30 Aug | A | vs Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | FC Cologne (Home · 4 matches) | Werder Bremen (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.00 |
Home stats use FC Cologne's home record; away stats use Werder Bremen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.