FC Cologne vs Schalke 04 — Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Cologne
47%
Draw
25%
Schalke 04
29%
Expected goals
1.67–1.25
FC Cologne · Schalke 04
FC Cologne win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Cologne win is 2–1 (9.4%).
FC Cologne score at least twice in 50%; Schalke 04 in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Schalke 04 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Cologne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 47% | 25% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 25% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Schalke 04 | 3.38 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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FC Cologne
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Werder Bremen | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 2–1 | W |
Schalke 04
| 30 Aug | A | vs Augsburg | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | vs Freiburg | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | FC Cologne (Home · 3 matches) | Schalke 04 (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.33 |
Home stats use FC Cologne's home record; away stats use Schalke 04's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.