Elversberg vs Bayern Munich — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 31.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Elversberg
6%
Draw
10%
Bayern Munich
84%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Bayern Munich win 83.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bayern Munich win. Expected goals 0.86–3.10 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–2 (9.6%), 0–3 (9.5%), 1–2 (8.9%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Elversberg
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Union Berlin | 0–1 | L |
Bayern Munich
| 28 Aug | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Elversberg | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 7–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Elversberg (Home · 4 matches) | Bayern Munich (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.00 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Elversberg's home record; away stats use Bayern Munich's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.