Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bayern Munich
95%
pick · result
Draw
4%
Union Berlin
1%
Final score
7–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Bayern Munich win 95.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bayern Munich win. Expected goals 4.65–0.62 against 7–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 4–0 (10.1%), 5–0 (9.4%), 3–0 (8.7%). It finished 7–0.
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Bayern Munich
| 28 Aug | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Elversberg | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 7–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
Union Berlin
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Schalke 04 | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–7 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Elversberg | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bayern Munich (Home · 4 matches) | Union Berlin (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 6.00 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Bayern Munich's home record; away stats use Union Berlin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.