Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bayer Leverkusen
67%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Union Berlin
14%
Final score
4–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Bayer Leverkusen win 67.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bayer Leverkusen win. Expected goals 2.49–1.08 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.1%), 2–0 (8.7%), 1–1 (8.2%). It finished 4–0.
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Bayer Leverkusen
| 29 Aug | A | vs Elversberg | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
Union Berlin
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Schalke 04 | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–7 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bayer Leverkusen (Home · 2 matches) | Union Berlin (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.50 |
Home stats use Bayer Leverkusen's home record; away stats use Union Berlin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.