Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bayer Leverkusen
48%
Draw
23%
RasenBallsport Leipzig
29%
Expected goals
1.90–1.39
Bayer Leverkusen · RasenBallsport Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.2%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bayer Leverkusen win is 2–1 (8.9%).
Bayer Leverkusen score at least twice in 56%; RasenBallsport Leipzig in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
RasenBallsport Leipzig goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market reference | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 23% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.02 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 2.05 1xBet |
| Draw | 4.16 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.26 | 4.35 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.59 | 4.35 Betano |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3.33 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 3.40 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
| 29 Aug | A | vs Elversberg | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| 29 Aug | H | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bayer Leverkusen (Home · 2 matches) | RasenBallsport Leipzig (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Bayer Leverkusen's home record; away stats use RasenBallsport Leipzig's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.