Augsburg vs Union Berlin — Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Augsburg
52%
Draw
23%
Union Berlin
25%
Expected goals
1.91–1.28
Augsburg · Union Berlin
Augsburg win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.0%), 2–0 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Augsburg win is 2–1 (10.0%).
Augsburg score at least twice in 57%; Union Berlin in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Union Berlin goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Augsburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Market reference | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Augsburg | 1.87 |
| Draw | 4.10 |
| Union Berlin | 3.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Augsburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Schalke 04 | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayern Munich | 2–2 | D |
Union Berlin
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Schalke 04 | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–7 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Elversberg | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Augsburg (Home · 3 matches) | Union Berlin (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 5.50 |
Home stats use Augsburg's home record; away stats use Union Berlin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.