Augsburg vs Schalke 04 — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Augsburg
43%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Schalke 04
30%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Augsburg win 42.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Augsburg win. Expected goals 1.56–1.33 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (8.2%). It finished 3–0.
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Augsburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Schalke 04 | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
Schalke 04
| 30 Aug | A | vs Augsburg | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Augsburg (Home · 2 matches) | Schalke 04 (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Augsburg's home record; away stats use Schalke 04's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.