🇩🇪 Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:30

WDWWL

15:30

9th vs —

Schalke 04

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Augsburg	2.19	2.19
Draw	3.73	3.73
Schalke 04	3.24	3.24

Metis Forecast

model + market

Augsburg

44%

Draw

26%

Schalke 04

30%

Augsburg 1.56 xGexpected goals1.30 xG Schalke 04

Augsburg win 44% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 58% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.2%).

Augsburg score at least twice in 47%; Schalke 04 in 37%.

1–1 12.2%2–1 10.2%1–0 8.9%2–0 7.1%1–2 6.8%0–0 6.4%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.4	5.9	4.8	2.3	0.8	0.3
1	8.9	12.1	6.8	3.2	1.2	0.4
2	7.1	10.2	5.7	2.3	0.8	0.3
3	3.4	4.8	3.4	1.3	0.4	0.1
4	1.2	1.7	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5+	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = Augsburg goals · columns = Schalke 04 goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score58%

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Over 4.5 goals16%

Augsburg clean sheet28%

Schalke 04 clean sheet21%

Augsburg score 2+47%

Schalke 04 score 2+37%

Augsburg score 3+20%

Model vs market

Source	Augsburg	Draw	Schalke 04
Raw Metis model	37%	27%	37%
Market (de-vigged)	44%	26%	30%
Metis Forecast	44%	26%	30%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Augsburg

23 Aug	A	vs Freiburg	3–1	W
30 Aug	H	vs Bayern Munich	2–3	L
14 Sept	A	vs St. Pauli	1–2	L
20 Sept	H	vs Mainz 05	1–4	L
27 Sept	A	vs FC Heidenheim	1–2	L

No recent results.

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Augsburg (Home)	Schalke 04 (Away)
BTTS rate	58.8%	—
Over 2.5 rate	52.9%	—
Clean sheet	29.4%	—
Avg goals	3.12	—

Home stats use Augsburg's home record; away stats use Schalke 04's away record this season.

Augsburg →🇩🇪 Bundesliga standings & fixtures