Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Augsburg
25%
Draw
23%
result
Bayer Leverkusen
52%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bayer Leverkusen win. Expected goals 1.30–1.99 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.5%), 1–2 (9.2%), 0–2 (7.2%). It finished 2–2.
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Augsburg
| 30 Aug | H | vs Schalke 04 | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayern Munich | 2–2 | D |
Bayer Leverkusen
| 29 Aug | A | vs Elversberg | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Union Berlin | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Mainz 05 | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Augsburg (Home · 5 matches) | Bayer Leverkusen (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 4.75 |
Home stats use Augsburg's home record; away stats use Bayer Leverkusen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.