Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia — Bulgarian First League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Spartak Varna
0 – 1
Lokomotiv Sofia
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Spartak Varna
35%
Draw
27%
Lokomotiv Sofia
37%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lokomotiv Sofia win 37.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lokomotiv Sofia win. Expected goals 1.25–1.23 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 0–1 (10.6%), 1–2 (9.0%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
Lokomotiv Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.