Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Spartak Varna
vs
15:15
Cherno More Varna
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Spartak Varna
30%
Draw
30%
Cherno More Varna
39%
Expected goals
1.07–1.23
Spartak Varna · Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 0–1 (11.6%), 0–0 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Spartak Varna score at least twice in 29%; Cherno More Varna in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Cherno More Varna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Spartak Varna goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market reference | 30% | 30% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 30% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
Cherno More Varna
| 19 Sept | A | vs Arda Kardzhali | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.